😱Recession or nah? We have to admit that a lot of our recent reporting and analysis has been extremely negative toward the fact that U.S. President Donald Trump has singlehandedly upended the tenuous trade balance between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. But that doesn’t mean such concerns aren’t without merit. For weeks now, uncertain and erratic behavior by the Trump administration and noteworthy retaliation by the Canadian and Mexican governments have contributed to growing recession fears.

• As CNN reports, the stock markets in the U.S. were riding high. But in the time of about 20 days, that success and growth brought on by post-2024 presidential election optimism are all but gone — boop, vanished — as the “R-word” returns.

• The “R-word” is obviously “recession.” And the justification for such fears can be seen in recent major losses on key indices, including the S&P 500 and its nearing correction territory on a 10 percent clawback. NBC News Digital reports that it has not yet realized how impactful such a correction will be on the economy.

• JPMorgan isn’t too concerned, surprisingly. Strategists for the major bank say that recession fears aren’t the driving force for sell-offs — rather an “under-the-radar” repositioning of key hybrid equity quant funds.

• But that isn’t a clear explanation for massaging recession fears. In February, Oxford Economics reported that Trump’s tariffs “will lead to weaker GDP growth, higher unemployment, higher interest rates and higher inflation this year (2025).

• Consumer confidence has also dipped, according to the Conference Board. Six in ten Americans surveyed by the Washington Post oppose tariffs.

• Canada issued retaliatory tariffs on about $20.6 billion in imports from the U.S.

• European Union announced retaliatory tariffs of $28 billion, including on bourbon.

• In return, Trump threatened an astronomical 200 percent levy on European wine.

• Mexico is taking a more measured approach but is ready to pounce when ready.

• And, retailers are extremely concerned about summer container volumes. The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates expects containerized imports to hit “summer doldrums.”

• “Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. Gold explained that they aren’t overly concerned with the craziness of the flow of goods from Canada and Mexico because of rail and truck delivery methods. However, China and trans-Pacific trade will face harm.

• The Chinese government has maintained what can be characterized as a firm but strategic response to Trump’s attempts to levy 10 percent tariffs on products that are made in China. China went the more diplomatic route and filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization alleging a violation of the key GATT policies like the US most-favored-nation obligations outlined in the agreement.

• “[New] tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April,” adds Gold, referring to the new “effective date” Trump issued for tariffs.

Bottom line: Boxy closed his ears when we wrote this, but (and pardon our French) ‘WTF’? How can shippers, retailers, and virtually every other stakeholder navigate one of the most erratic trade wars in recent memory? And how can we massage recession fears? All that can be done now is wait for the impact of tariff effective dates and the full impact of a market correction to come to fruition. Keep plugging along everybody.

WATCH: Canada and EU announce retaliatory tariffs, escalating Trump's trade war

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📰OTHER NEWS IN FREIGHT📰

🌚DHL and NYU Stern release the annual Global Trade Atlas: “Even if all tariffs proposed during President Trump's election campaign are implemented, and countries retaliate, trade is expected to grow - but more slowly,” reads key findings of the report.

🤦Trump asked military planners to draw up plans to invade the Panama Canal: Officials for the Trump White House have announced that the president has asked the U.S. military to prepare invasion plans to reacquire the Panama Canal zone. More…

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