[Freight Weekly] NRF Forecasts Container Surge Before Trump's Tariffs, Potential Port Strike

💨 The National Retail Federation Global Port Tracker expects that container cargo will surge through U.S. ports right before Donald Trump’s promised tariffs and a potential strike by longshoremen along the East and Gulf Coast ports. Read more:

• The National Retail Federation (NRF), a trade group representing retailers in the United States, predicts that containerized imports through all U.S. ports will surge as shippers want to squeeze cargo through as possible before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office and potentially levy his “day one” tariffs.

• NRF also predicts other interpretations of trade in the upcoming months due to the ongoing specter of a potentially catastrophic strike by the International Longshoremen Association, which represents longshoremen. Per our previous writing, the ILA and member companies of the USMX remain at an impasse.

• “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

• In another report from NRF from October 2024, the federation predicts trucking and logistics sectors in the supply-value chain will experience strong growth.

• Transport Topics additionally notes that this successful season could be quelled because of the potential harms of interstate trade wars between trading partners.

• In a similar vein, the National Chicken Council and hundreds of state and national trade organizations across various economic segments are urging ILA & USMX to return to the negotiating table to help ease disruption by a strike.

• A deadline of January 15, 2025, was set to reach an agreement on a new master contract agreement between ILA and USMX, but the impasse and the potential of aggressive Donald Trump-backed tariffs could make the strategic outlook bleaker.

• The hundreds of companies and trade groups said, “It is imperative for the parties to resume negotiations and remain at the table until a new contract is reached.”

• On the front of tariffs, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) reported December 12 will impact “large flows” of cargo from countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and other trading partners. “The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” reports the PIIE researchers.

Bottom line: Considering the National Retail Federation projection and the compounding factors of a strike and tariffs, it is no wonder that port volumes surged to these new peaks.

CONTEXT: Import Cargo Rising as Higher Tariffs and Potential Port Strike Approach

MORE: “Resumption of Port Labor Negotiations,” a joint letter of the trade groups

Find New Cargo & Logistics Partners with the FFS Load Board

This newsletter is brought to you by the FFS Load Board. TODAY, right now, shippers need quotes on the following loads:

🚢10 40ft Containers — building materials: China to Djibouti

🚢Container — 1963 Mercedes Benz C220: Baltimore, MD, USA to Morocco

🚚3x FTL — 20,000 lbs per load: South Carolina to Bronx, NY, USA

🚚LTL — 1300kgs/26.2cbm food trailer: Wilmington to Rocky Mount, NC, USA

📈 BY THE NUMBERS

⛽ Diesel: $3.458 / gal (⬇️from $3.540 last week) - EIA

✈️ Air Cargo Index (Oct. ‘24): 202.7 (⬆️from 187 in Sept. ‘24) - FRED

🚢 Global Container Index: $3,553.80 on Dec. 12 - Freightos

📰OTHER NEWS IN FREIGHT📰

🙅‍♀️Ontario premier threatens to cut off power to millions of Americans over Trump tariffs: Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the leader of Canada’s most populous province, has threatened to cut off power to the 1.5 million Americans who rely on the province’s energy exports to bordering U.S. states like Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. He will do this in a bid to fight back against President-elect Donald Trump’s day-one tariffs on Canada.

🚂 Rail freight volumes climb: The latest volume data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) indicates an early December peak. U.S. railroad systems reported handling 520,894 carloads and intermodal units in the week of Dec. 7.

Check out Freight Weekly on LinkedIn. You can also check us out on X (formerly Twitter) for regular brief updates.