🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯 Whoops…

Several reports note President Donald Trump’s tariff revenue estimates amid the global trade war aren’t meeting targets. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data notes they have only collected more than $500 million under Trump’s tariff regime.

According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the agency has collected more than $500 million under the new reciprocal tariffs regime. This contributes to more than $21 billion in total tariff revenue from 15 executive actions from January 20, 2025.

• At least, that is what the CBP told CNBC in a statement. This runs counter to an estimate issued by President Trump himself, who claimed that the United States is taking in $2 billion per day from tariff revenues. Despite this claim from Trump, the White House has remained relatively inconsistent on its tariff policymaking.

• For example, Trump has temporarily halted reciprocal tariffs on most nations for at least 90 days. On the other end, China faces at least 245 percent tariff rates.

• As such, the Trump administration's claims of $2 billion per day are considered false. FactCheck.org reports that Trump is overstating daily revenue pulls. An official statement from CBP on April 8 notes that they’re pulling in $200 million.

• This inconsistent nature of Trump’s tariff policies is harmful to efforts attempting to establish a degree of consistency in an inconsistent period for global trade.

• Tariffs are also contributing to a freight recession, per some accounts. JB Hunt is the most prominent intermodal carrier to indicate that a current freight recession has gone on for at least three years. And there is no indication of this lightening up, as clients of theirs are developing “what-if scenarios” for trade wars.

• Shelley Simpson, chief executive officer of JB Hunt, said in an earnings call that “I’ve never seen a recession last three years. I think everyone’s holding on. … It is a very difficult environment that we’re operating in, and I think everyone’s trying to adapt to it.” Reports indicate JB Hunt is also tracking client reactions to tariffs. It is also worth noting that JB Hunt does nearly $3 billion in annual revenues.

• Meanwhile, Trump’s trade war will continue to damage the U.S. economy — if it hasn’t already. Don’t forget, before the tariff pause, Trump’s tariffs drove financial markets around the world, forcing a two-day sell-off totaling more than $6 trillion.

• Now, controversial fast-fashion e-commerce companies Shein and Temu say that Trump’s tariffs are contributing to economic shrinkage in a manner that could cost billions across the board. International organizations, including the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, warn of a recession.

Bottom line: As indicated, the trade war instigated by Trump’s White House is not even close to meeting its avowed projections of $2 billion. There is nothing good coming out of the trade war, but the overall implications will be seen in the coming months. Watch out!

MORE: “Tariffs to trigger sharp US economic slowdown; chance of recession jumps to 45%: Reuters Poll” - Reuters

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